The Phillies, Outfielders, and the Amateur Draft
Are you good at guessing hardcore Phillies trivia? What do Kyrell Hudson, Cord Sandberg, and Cole Stobbe have in common?
All were third-round selections by the Phils in the MLB Amateur Draft. All were outfielders — taken in 2009, 2013, and 2016. All never made it above the AA level.
I know this minutiae because I recently took a deep dive into the Phillies amateur draft history on www.thebaseballcube.com, an archival treasure trove.
I was interested in finding out the last time the Phillies drafted an impact outfielder, using this filter: a major league regular who earned full-time at-bats (500+) for more than 2 consecutive seasons.
The results of the search startle and disappoint in equal measure, revealing only one such player: Pat The Bat Burrell in 1998.
That’s 25 years of drafting ignominy.
Twenty five years of Greg Golson, Dylan Cousins, Kelly Dugan, and Roman Quinn.
Twenty five years of Mike Costanzo, Zach Collier, Larry Greene, and Cornelius Randolph.
Twenty five years of Mickey Moniak, Adam Haseley, Luke Williams, and Scott Kingery.
To be clear, the players listed above are not late-round dart throws. They were all selected in the first 3 rounds of drafting, signifying that in the estimation of the Phillies thinktank they were among the Top 90-100 baseball talents available from the domestic collegiate and high school ranks.
In three amateur drafts since 1998, the Phils did not select any outfielder in the first 10 rounds.
Brown, Byrd, and Bourn
While identifying only Burrell as an impact outfielder, my search did turn up a few near misses. Dom Brown, a 20th rounder in 2006 (you probably forgot he was picked that late) played two full-time seasons in 2013 and 2014 and made an All-Star team; the rest of his resume produces agita.
Marlon Byrd was a 10th rounder in 1999 who compiled 25.8 WAR over a decent (late-blooming) career. But Byrd only had 1,000 career at bats for the Phils, and just one season with over 500. He was traded to Washington for the immortal Endy Chavez in 2005.
If there’s a pony in the pile, it’s Michael Bourn, a second rounder in 2003. Mind you, Bourn only had 144 plate appearances as a Phillie but he was intriguing enough to be traded to Houston in 2007 for a package that returned Brad Lidge. Bourn compiled 22.8 WAR in his career and twice had 60+ SB in a season, both for the Astros.
I point out the WAR totals of Byrd and Bourn because they both ended up amassing higher career WAR than Burrell, who labored a bit defensively while playing nine seasons for the Phillies and 12 seasons overall.
PHlailing In International Waters, too
The Phillies have also failed to mine outfielders from burgeoning international markets. They unearth shortstops and pitchers and the occasional catcher, just not anything resembling productive outfielders.
This drought is happening against the backdrop of savvier organizations regularly plucking and grooming MLB caliber outfielders, including transformative talents like Ronald Acuna, Juan Soto, Julio Rodriguez, and soon, Jackson Churio.
The failure on the international front is not from lack of aggression. In 2015, the Phils lavished Jhailyn Ortiz with a $4M signing bonus, but that grand gesture fizzled and now stings; Ortiz was designated for assignment last week.
When they do sign athletic, toolsy outfielders, like current hopefuls Johan Rojas and Yhoswar Garcia, their hit tools invariably seem to plateau and their prospect status downgrades from promising to platoon-type player. Fingers crossed on Rojas.
It is important to remember that MLB dictates the size of the annual spending budget available to teams for international signings, leveling the playing field for smaller markets like Pittsburg and Kansas City. So it is not a matter of the Phillies getting consistently outspent by the Yankees or Padres or Dodgers or Mets on the international stage; they simply have a systemic inability to identify and develop outfield talent – on a college campus or on a backfield in the Dominican Republic.
You Get 20 Million, And You Get 20 MillioN…
The long-standing failure of the Phillies to draft and develop outfielders is more than a curiosity; it is a flaw that forces the organization to mimic the largess of Oprah Winfrey in order to sway and pay free agents they desperately need to compete in a tough division.
Trace the trail of tears that began in 2013 — Randolph, Kingery, Williams, Moniak, and Haseley — and it leads directly to the big-ticket, long-term contracts proffered to Schwarber and Castellanos — $20M per year each for one-dimensional sluggers better suited for DH and roles on the dirt, but who have found themselves manning corner OF spots since their arrivals.
So here we are at the start of the 2023 season, and the Phillies are strapped to a 40-man Competitive Balance Tax total of $255 million – the fourth highest in baseball and $22M over the threshold.
It is their second consecutive overage, subject to 30% penalty. On this year’s Opening Day payroll of $243M, nearly 30% of it was allocated for the salaries of three free-agent outfielders.
It feels like this is an organization at a bit of a crossroad — with all chips pushed to center table, desperate for an encore — but already taking in water from injuries that cannot be plugged deftly because of the limits of roster construction and shallow minor league depth. Will they continue adding to the bloated payroll? Do they grasp at the brass ring once more while Aaron Nola is still in pinstripes?
While I appreciate John Middleton’s generosity and public optimism, the approach does not seem sustainable or realistic.
The naked truth is that the Phils only have two low-cost, controllable assets – Alec Bohm and Bryson Stott — to ameliorate the breakneck spending. Brandon Marsh may develop into a reliable player; he also may be fronting an Allman Brothers tribute band within five years. Ranger Suarez could be a bargain for the next few years, but the health of his left arm became a most unwelcome question mark this spring.
Critically important to the overall outlook, the Phillies will soon learn whether crown jewel Andrew Painter will pitch again this year, possibly contributing to the team in the second half, or require elbow surgery that stalls his full-time arrival in South Philly for a year, maybe more.
Where Have You Gone, Johnni Turbo?
Speaking of the naked truth, to satisfy your morbid curiosity, I created a table that lists all of the outfielders taken by the Phillies in the Amateur Draft since 1998. Enjoy the trip down misery lane. For the record, Johnni Turbo (2006) and Gauntlett Eldermire (2010) are real names.
And be sure to stew on this nugget: from 2004 through 2017, the Phils selected an OFer in the first round six times. These six first rounders combined to collect only 421 mostly-empty ABs with the big club, a return worse than banks provide on savings accounts.
I am a Phillies fan, so it is my sincerest hope that the outfielder taken in the first round in 2022, Justin Crawford, is at least half the player his father was and that the young man delivers ten years of productive outfield play for the Phillies.
The last time that happened, Ed Rendell was mayor and Blockbuster was still operating 6,500 stores.
| OUTFIELDER | YEAR | DRAFT ROUND |
| PAT BURRELL | 1998 | 1 |
| ERIC VALENT | 1998 | 2 |
| JORGE PADILLA | 1998 | 3 |
| JASON MICHAELS | 1998 | 4 |
| JASON COOPER | 1999 | 2 |
| MARLON BYRD | 1999 | 10 |
| 2000 | NO OF PICK FIRST 10 ROUNDS | |
| CHRIS ROBERSON | 20001 | 9 |
| JAKE BLALOCK | 2002 | 5 |
| MICHAEL BOURN | 2003 | 2 |
| JAVON MORAN | 2003 | 5 |
| JORDAN PARRAZ | 2003 | 6 |
| GREG GOLSON | 2004 | 1 |
| SEAN GAMBLE | 2004 | 6 |
| MIKE COSTANZO | 2005 | 2 |
| JERMAIN WILLIAMS | 2005 | 7 |
| JEREMY SLADEN | 2005 | 8 |
| JOHHNI TURBO | 2006 | 4 |
| QUINTON BERRY | 2006 | 5 |
| MICHAEL TAYLOR | 2007 | 5 |
| ZACH COLLIER | 2008 | 1 |
| ANTHONY GOSE | 2008 | 2 |
| KELLY DUGAN | 2009 | 2 |
| KYRELL HUDSON | 2009 | 3 |
| AARON ALTHERR | 2009 | 9 |
| GAUNTLETT ELDERMIRE | 2010 | 6 |
| LARRY GREENE | 2011 | 1 |
| ROMAN QUINN | 2011 | 2 |
| DYLAN COUSINS | 2012 | 3 |
| CAMERON PERKINS | 2012 | 6 |
| CORD SANDBERG | 2013 | 3 |
| 2014 | NO OF PICK FIRST 10 ROUNDS | |
| CORNELIUS RANDOLPH | 2015 | 1 |
| SCOTT KINGERY | 2015 | 2 |
| LUKE WILLIAMS | 2015 | 3 |
| MICKEY MONIAK | 2016 | 1 |
| COLE STOBBE | 2016 | 3 |
| ADAM HASELEY | 2017 | 1 |
| DAULTON GUTHRIE | 2017 | 6 |
| MATT VIERLING | 2018 | 5 |
| 2019 | NO OF PICK FIRST 10 ROUNDS | |
| BARON RADCLIFF | 2020* | 5 |
| ETHAN WILSON | 2021 | 2 |
| JORDAN VIARS | 2021 | 3 |
| JUSTIN CRAWFORD | 2022 | 1 |
| GABRIEL RINCONES | 2022 | 3 |
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